International Journal of Pure & Applied Bioscience (IJPAB)
Year : 2018, Volume : 6, Issue : 2
First page : (217) Last page : (221)
Article doi: : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.5464
Forecasting the Prices of Indian Natural Rubber using ARIMA Model
Velpula Jhansi Rani1 and S. Krishnan2
1M.Sc. (Agri) Research Scholar, 2Professor and Head, Department of Agricultural Statistics, College of Horticulture, Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur
*Corresponding Author E-mail: jhansirani.velpula@gmail.com
Received: 18.08.2017 | Revised: 25.09.2017 | Accepted: 1.10.2017
ABSTRACT
In this paper, an attempt is made to forecast the prices of natural rubber in India by using monthly data for the period from January 1980 to December 2016. ARIMA (4, 1, 4) model was found best by identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and validation. So, forecasting of prices was attempted for six months i.e., January 2017 to December 2017. Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used as the selection criteria to determine the best forecasting model. The forecasting method for prices of natural rubber in India, as shown in this paper, can be a very useful tool for the farmers to decide upon their production.
Key words: Natural rubber, ARIMA, forecasting.
Full Text : PDF; Journal doi : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782
Cite this article: Rani, V.J., Krishnan, S., Forecasting the Prices of Indian Natural Rubber using ARIMA Model, Int. J. Pure App. Biosci.6(2): 217-221 (2018). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.5464
