International Journal of Pure & Applied Bioscience (IJPAB)
Year : 2017, Volume : 5, Issue : 5
First page : (212) Last page : (216)
Article doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.3032
Modelling and Forecasting of Wheat Production through Structural Time-Series Models in Chhattisgarh
Roshan Kumar Bhardwaj*1, Vandana Bhardwaj2, D. P. Singh3, S.S. Gautam4 and R. R. Saxena5
1& 3Research Scholar, (Agriculture statistics) M.G.C.G.V, Chitrakoot, Satna (M.P.)
2Lecturer, (Panchayat) Deptt. of education, Surguja (CG)
4Associate Professor, statistics Deptt of Physical Science. M.G.C.G.V, Chitrakoot, Satna (M.P.)
5Professor, Deptt. Of Agri. Stat. & SSL, I.G.K.V., Raipur (C.G.)
*Corresponding Author E-mail: roshan_smcs@rediffmail.com
Received: 27.05.2017 | Revised: 10.06.2017 | Accepted: 11.06.2017
ABSTRACT
Purpose of present paper is to discuss STM methodology utilized for modelling time-series data in the present of trend, seasonal and cyclic fluctuations. Structural time series model are formulated in such a way that their components are stochastic, i.e. they are regard as being driven by random disturbances. Structural time series model are formulated in such a way that their components are stochastic, i.e. they are regard as being driven by random disturbances. The study mainly confined to secondary collected data from a period 2009-10 to 2014-15 data of promising varieties of wheat yield. As these techniques, it may be mentioned that models are fitted to the data and coefficient parameter value obtained on the basis of the model are compared with the actual observation for assessing the accuracy of the fitted model. To validate the forecasting ability of the fitted models, for the three years with upper and lower limit. The maximum wheat yield obtained GW-273 variety with forecast for the year 2017-18 obtained 26.92 q/ha and the minimum yield obtained Lok-1(19.00 q/ha), HI-1531 (19.57 q/ha) and HI-1544 (20.48 q/ha).
Key words:AIC, BIC, Goodness of fit, Forecasting and Structural time series model.
Full Text : PDF; Journal doi : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782
Cite this article: Bhardwaj, R.K., Bhardwaj, V., Singh, D.P., Gautam, S.S. and Saxena, R.R., Modelling and Forecasting of Wheat Production through Structural Time-Series Models in Chhattisgarh, Int. J. Pure App. Biosci.5(5): 212-216 (2017). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.3032
