International Journal of Pure & Applied Bioscience (IJPAB)
Year : 2017, Volume : 5, Issue : 5
First page : (1553) Last page : (1558)
Article doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.5839

Preharvest Forecasting of Rice Yield Using Biometrical Characters Along with Farmers Appraisal in Muzaffarpur District of Bihar

Mahesh Kumar*, M. M. Singh and Subhash Kumar
Department of Statistics, Mathematics and Computer Application
Dr. Rajendra Prasad Central Agricultural University, Pusa, Samastipur, Bihar -848125
*Corresponding Author E-mail: mahesh_smca@yahoo.co.in
Received: 18.09.2017  |  Revised: 25.10.2017   |  Accepted: 27.10.2017  

 ABSTRACT

This study is on development of pre-harvest yield forecast model of rice crop of Bihar. For this research observations on plant biometrical characters such as average plant population per m2 (X1), average plant height in cm (X2­), average number of tillers per m2 (X3), average length of Panicle in cm (X4), application of phosphorus (P2O5) in kg/ha (X6), disease infestation in percentage (X9) and average plant condition (X10) on the basis of eye estimate corresponding to the rice yield were recorded from 50 farmer’s field of Muzaffarpur  district of Bihar using a Sample survey procedure. The villages were considered as first stage unit of selection while farmer’s field as second stage unit of selection. All possible regression analysis was carried out to select the best combination of variables on the basis of some importance statistics such as C.V., R2, Adjusted R2, RMSE, Residual & Cook’s D statistic. However, 10 per cent of observations were kept for model validation purpose. The following models have been proposed. From the best five models one best model is selected for this district based on the above statistic value. Also we find that the actual yield and forecasted yield are very close with forecasting error is below 3.16.  On the basis of above facts and below mentioned statistic values model of Muzaffarpur district is recommended for forecasting of rice productivity in Bihar. Thus preharvest forecasted yield of rice will be 16.45 q/h in Muzaffarpur district of Bihar for 2010-11.
Model for Muzaffarpur district for 2010-11
   =    6.89084 + 0.25334 X1 + 0.04384 X2 + 0.09770 X3 – 0.18843 X4 – 0.01414 X6          – 0.22107 X9 + 1.62934 X10
CV = 12.281,   R2 = 53.56%,   Adj R2 = 44.77%,         RMSE = 1.85045

Key Word: Rice yield forecasting, Biometrical Character of rice, Farmers appraisal

Full Text : PDF; Journal doi : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782

Cite this article: Kumar, M., Singh, M.M. and Kumar, S., Preharvest Forecasting of Rice Yield Using Biometrical Characters Along with Farmers Appraisal in Muzaffarpur District of Bihar, Int. J. Pure App. Biosci.5(5): 1553-1558 (2017). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.5839