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Indian Journal of Pure & Applied Biosciences (IJPAB)
Year : 2021, Volume : 9, Issue : 3
First page : (140) Last page : (144)
Article doi: : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2582-2845.8673
Behaviour of Prices of Groundnut in Northern Hills of Chhattisgarh
Ankur Kumar Rathore1* 
, Akhilesh Kumar Singh1 and Manisha Dhurve2
1Department of Agricultural Statistics and Social Science (L.), College of Agriculture,
Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishvavidyalaya, Raipur, (C.G.)
2Department of Agronomy, College of Agriculture, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishvavidyalaya, Raipur, (C.G.)
*Corresponding Author E-mail: ankurkumarrathore1996@gmail.com
Received: 12.04.2021 | Revised: 17.05.2021 | Accepted: 24.05.2021
ABSTRACT
This study attempted to guide the farmers and planners for reliable and specific information concerning the prices of Groundnut in the Northern Hills agro-climatic zone of Chhattisgarh. The time series data of prices was taken monthly from January, 2010 to March, 2021 (135 months) and it was used to forecast the prices for upcoming 24 months i.e. April, 2021 to March, 2023. The time trend analysis of prices of groundnut were found sharpely increasing over the study period. The price remains almost similar over the year as indicated by seasonal indices. On the basis of lowest MAE, MAPE, RMSE and AIC, out of the seasonal ARIMA models we got, ARIMA (1,1,1) (0,0,2) [12] was best identified fitted model for predicting prices of Groundnut. The data analysis is done by using R ().
Keywords: Forecasting, ARIMA, Groundnut, Prices, Chhattisgarh.
Full Text : PDF; Journal doi : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782
Cite this article: Rathore, A. K., Singh, A. K., & Dhurve, M. (2021). Behaviour of Prices of Groundnut in Northern Hills of Chhattisgarh, Ind. J. Pure App. Biosci. 9(3), 140-144. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2582-2845.8673
INTRODUCTION
In Chhattisgarh state, the seven oilseed crops, both edible and non-edible, namely, sunflower, groundnut, sesame, niger, linseed, soybean, rapeseed-mustard are cultivated. Groundnut is the second most important oilseed crop in Chhattisgarh after Soybean. Groundnut seeds contain about 22–30% protein and 45–56% oil and much more beneficial nutrients like vitamin E, minerals, niacin, antioxidants and folic acid. The arrivals of Groundnut took place in almost all the markets of Northern Hills of Chhattisgarh namely Jashpurnagar, Patthalgaon, Ramanujganj, Baikunthpur, Manendragarh, Pratappur, Surajpur and Ambikapur round the year.
For the expansion of agriculture it has become essential that farmers get fair prices of their commodities in the agricultural markets. Therefore, the trends in market prices of products are useful in forecasting the prices of the commodities for the betterment of farmers, governments, and agribusiness industries.
By the help of price forecasting of Groundnut in Northern Hills, farmers of this agro-climatic zone would find the forecast for that particular month in which they get remunerative and high price of his/her produce.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Monthely time series data of the prices of Groundnut have been collected from the records of the Agricultural Products Market Committees and the website of Chhattisgarh State Agricultural Marketing (Mandi) Board, http://agriportal.cg.nic.in/agrimandi/. The data collection have been done for the study period January 2010 to March 2021 (135 months). For the study of prices of Northern Hills, the data for monthly prices of Groundnut have been obtained by averaging the monthly prices over different constituent markets. In the present study, Statistical analyses have been done by using the powerful software “R: The Project for Statistical Computing”.
Moving Average method has been used to depict the overall trend of prices of Groundnut in Northern Hills over the entire study period. Additionally it is a good idea to refine this moving average trend values to a straight line trend for a general interpretation of decrease or increase over a long period of time. For this we may fit a straight line regression equation to the moving average trend values obtained. To measure the seasonal variation in monthly time series data of Groundnut prices, seasonal indices are calculated by Method of Simple Averages to find out the seasonal effect. For the forecasting of prices of Groundnut in Northern Hills the model used is ARIMA model.
Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is the generalization of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA). The autoregressive (AR) part of the ARIMA model indicates a type of random process representing the time-varying processes in nature, economics, etc., while the moving average (MA) part is the average attained over a particular period of cycle.
For Arrivals and Prices of Groundnut in Northern Hills the best model will be that which have maximum R2, minimum MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), minimum RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and minimum MAE (Mean Absolute Error) criterion.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The moving average trend for price of Groundnut in Northern Hills has been presented in Fig. 1 along with the refined trend line indicated by a red line. Based on the estimated trend, it can be interpreted that there is overall increase in Groundnut prices in Northern Hills of Chhattisgarh.
The monthly time series data of prices of Groundnut in Northern Hills of Chhattisgarh was analysed by above quoted method. The finally obtained best ARIMA model for Groundnut price after identification process is presented in the Table 2.
Table 1: Best fitted model for Groundnut prices in Northern Hills
Best Model |
RMSE |
MAE |
MAPE |
AIC |
ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,0,2)[12] |
223.91 |
170.81 |
4.92 |
1846.09 |
The forecasts for post sample period of 24 months i.e. April, 2021 to March, 2023 were made from best fitted identified model. These forecasted values are presented in the Table 2 and Fig. 3.
Table 2: Forecasts of Prices of Groundnut in Northern Hills of Chhattisgarh
Year |
Month |
Forecasted prices |
Year |
Month |
Forecasted prices |
2021 |
Apr |
4979.58 |
2022 |
Apr |
5245.15 |
As shown in the Fig. 3, the fitted values by the model are found to be close to the actual values and the forecasted prices of Groundnut in Northern Hills of Chhattisgarh are showing the slight increasing behaviour over the next two years. From the Table 2, the highest forecasted price of Groundnut for Northern Hills is expected to be Rupees 5459.84 / quintal in the month of January, 2023.
CONCLUSION
The study concluded that the seasonal ARIMA models gave good fitting for the data with seasonality. The fitted values of prices of Groundnut in Northern Hills of Chhattisgarh are very close to their actual values. The forecasted price of Groundnut is showing increasing trend over the next two years and it is observed that the price seasonal indices do not show much variation. The relevant forecasts of price can help both the Groundnut farmers as well as the planners for future planning.
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