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International Journal of Pure & Applied Bioscience (IJPAB)
Year : 2018, Volume : 6, Issue : 4
First page : (468) Last page : (476)
Article doi: : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-6613

Forecasting the Prices of Greengram in Selected Markets of Andhra Pradesh

K. Divya¹*, S. Rajeswari², I. Bhavani Devi³ and P. Sumathi⁴

^1,2Department of Agricultural Economics, ³Institute of Agri-Business Management,
⁴Department of Statistics and Mathematics, S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati
*Corresponding Author E-mail: divya.kathula@gmail.com
Received: 15.06.2018 | Revised: 22.07.2018 | Accepted: 4.08.2018  

 

 ABSTRACT

Pulses are an important commodity group of crops that provide high quality protein complementing cereal proteins for pre-dominantly substantial vegetarian population of the country. Although, being the largest pulse crop cultivating country in the World, pulses share to total foodgrain production is only 6-7% in the country. The main purpose of this paper is to identify the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model by Box Jenkin’s method that could be used to forecast the prices of greengram in Suryapeta and Thandur markets. The secondary data pertaining to monthly prices (Rs/Qtls) of greengram collected from April 2000 to December 2014 has been used for the study. The best selected ARIMA model for forecasting the greengram prices in Suryapeta was ARIMA (0,1,1), and, for Thandur market it was ARIMA (1,0,1). This paper makes a comparison between the original and forecasted prices which was relatively closer to the real values in both Suryapeta and Thandur markets.

Key words: Greengram prices, ARIMA, AIC, PACF, Forecasting

Full Text : PDF; Journal doi : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782

Cite this article: Divya, K., Rajeswari, S., Bhavani Devi, I. and Sumathi, P., Forecasting the Prices of Greengram in Selected Markets of Andhra Pradesh, Int. J. Pure App. Biosci.6(4): 468-476 (2018). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.6613