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International Journal of Pure & Applied Bioscience (IJPAB)
Year : 2018, Volume : 6, Issue : 2
First page : (1372) Last page : (1375)
Article doi: : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.6265

Seasonal Arima Model to Forecast Rainfall for Three Mandalas of Telangana State

K. Kiran Prakash*, S. K. Nafeez Umar¹, G. Ramesh², S. Hyama Jyothi³ and M. Venkataramulu⁴
*Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Advanced Post Graduation Centre, Lam, Guntur
Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Lam, Guntur. A.P.
¹Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Agricultural College, Bapatla, ANGRAU, A.P.
²Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Agricultural College, Rajamahendravaram, ANGRAU, A.P.
³Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural College, Rajamahendravaram, ANGRAU, A.P.
⁴AI&CC, Lam, ANGRAU, A.P.
*Corresponding Author E-mail: kiran_stat@rediffmail.com
Received: 5.02.2018  |  Revised: 14.03.2018   |  Accepted: 20.03.2018  

 ABSTRACT

The prediction of rainfall on monthly and seasonal timescale is not only scientifically challenging but is also implement for planning and devising original strategies. Various research groups attempt to predict rainfall on a seasonal time scale using different techniques. This paper describes the Box-Jenkins time series Seasonal ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) approach for prediction of rainfall on monthly scale. Seasonal ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,0) for rainfall (m.m) was identified the best model to forecast rainfall for Aswaraopet and Vemsoor mandals and Seasonal ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,0,1) was identified for Sathupally mandal  for next one  year with confidence level of 95 percent by analyzing 27 years data(1990-2017).Previous data is used to  formulate the seasonal ARIMA model and in determination of model parameters. The preference evaluation of the adopted models are carried out on the basis of correlation coefficient (R2) and Mean absolute percentage error. The study conducted at three mandals Aswaraopet, Sathupally and Vemsoor of Telangana State (India).The result indicate that the Seasonal ARIMA model provide consistent and satisfactory prediction for rainfall parameters on monthly scale.

Full Text : PDF; Journal doi : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782

Cite this article: Prakash, K.K., Umar, S.K.N., Ramesh, G., Jyothi, S.H. and Venkataramulu, M., Seasonal Arima Model to Forecast Rainfall for Three Mandalas of Telangana State, Int. J. Pure App. Biosci.6(2): 1372-1375 (2018). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.6265